Sam Gutterman

  • All of you have heard of the actuarial black box.
    • This is a situation I will define as one in which actuarial analysis has not been adequately explained to its users.
  • We can eliminate black boxes by more complete disclosure, more time spent with the user explaining what was done, and with better communication.
  • Most actuaries I know can communicate well.
    • However, they don't always give communications enough attention as an important part of any project.
  • The more a user understands what we do, the more the end product will be valued and trusted, and the more times the actuary will become involved in significant issues.
  • I hope that you join me in feeling confident in the value of the actuarial approach to problem-solving.
  • If we can boost our users' confidence and trust in us, the better off we will all become.

1996 - SOA - The Actuary, The Actuarial Black Box, by Sam Gutterman, Society of Actuaries - 2p 

  • 1983 - SOA - Steps in Creating Study Notes - act-1983-vol17-iss04-gutterman
  • 1995 - SOA - Sam Gutterman - Address of the President:  The Redesign of the Actuary, Society of Actuaries - 8p
  • 1996 - SOA - The Actuary, The Actuarial Black Box, by Sam Gutterman, Society of Actuaries - 2p 
  • 2004 - SOA - International Accounting Standards—Current Developments, Society of Actuaries - 24p
  • In this project, we studied a typical universal life (UL) contract issued in the United States.
    • We studied three alternative approaches of recognizing renewal premiums and their effect on expected earnings.
      • The first was to ignore their recognition until received.
      • The second was to recognize the amount of expected renewal premium, while the
      • third only recognized the minimum required premium level that would keep the contract in force.
    • Many actuaries wonder why this subject even needs to be discussed, as the answer seems obvious. Why is this an issue?
      • The problem is that these renewal premiums are not guaranteed; they don't have to be paid and thus are not under the control of the insurer.
      • The definition of an asset is that it has to be under the current control of the entity.
        • In fact, in sales illustrations, policyholders may not desire to pay a premium.

--  Sam Gutterman

2004 - SOA - International Accounting Standards—Current Developments, Society of Actuaries - 24p